A study of 95 goal-sized repricing episodes across 608 linked World Cup prediction markets on Polymarket, from June 11 to July 4, 2026, reveals that shocks propagate through a tree of linked markets and fade with distance. When a match market repriced by 10 cents or more, the group-winner market co-moved 80.0% of the time, against just 8.4% in the same window 24 hours earlier. The co-move rate fades with distance: 49.5% for progression markets, 15.8% for top scorer, and 9.8% for the tournament winner. Magnitude follows the same pattern, dropping from a median of 63.3 cents on other lines in the same match to two-tenths of a cent on the title market. The tournament-winner market moved on only 2 of 80 group-stage shocks and 7 of 12 knockout shocks, with all seven title moves occurring in the Round of 32.
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