The U.S. economy is expected to have created just 59,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, up from 29,000 in September, according to the Dow Jones consensus. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2% as a shrinking labor market reduces the number of job gains needed to keep unemployment stable. From January 2025 through September 2026, payroll growth averaged 35,000 per month, the labor force contracted by 434,000 and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.8%. Layoffs remain low, with initial jobless claims at 189,000 last week, but long-term unemployment is rising and averaged 24.8 weeks in September.
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