Diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, held in Muscat, have collapsed without reaching an agreement, leaving Tehran facing a choice between escalation and continued dialogue. The collapse of these talks comes as the United States has increased its military presence in the region and carried out strikes targeting Iranian nuclear and missile sites. Prediction markets reflect growing skepticism: the probability of a diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 is now estimated at 7.5%, compared to 38.5% by year-end. This situation could strengthen arguments within Tehran for a more confrontational approach.
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