According to TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg, a Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress would make it highly unlikely that the CLARITY Act would pass over the next two years. The bill, approved by the House 294-134 in July 2025 but rejected 49-50 in a Senate cloture vote on September 15, would have to be reintroduced if it fails before January 3. A Democratic Senate majority could also block presidential appointments and intensify scrutiny of Donald Trump’s crypto activities, worsening the sector’s political environment. The Senate would become the decisive institution, particularly with Elizabeth Warren chairing the Banking Committee, while Maxine Waters would lead the House Financial Services Committee. Bitcoin traded around $77,500, while Kalshi prediction markets gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and a 74% chance of winning the Senate.
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