The global crude oil market faces potential disruption due to a supertanker shortage and escalating freight costs. Benchmark freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have reached record levels, making some long-haul oil shipments economically unviable, particularly on routes from the Middle East to Asia and the U.S. Gulf to Asia. Markets are interpreting this situation as a significant constraint on global oil flows that could influence crude prices. The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 has risen to 11.5%, compared to just 0.5% for September 30, reflecting market participants’ expectations of future supply constraints. OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and major oil-exporting nations remain key actors to monitor.
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