Credit markets now price SoftBank’s five-year default probability at 30% to 33% after its credit default swap spreads climbed to 457-466 basis points. The deterioration comes amid costly financing for an approximately $64.6 billion commitment to OpenAI, which owns roughly 13% of the company. In September 2026, SoftBank issued $11.1 billion in high-yield bonds, some carrying interest rates of up to 9.75%, and also relied on margin loans and bridge facilities. Its 90% stake in Arm serves as collateral for around $25 billion in margin loans, while a $40 billion bridge facility is earmarked for investments. The postponement of OpenAI’s IPO to 2027 extends the period during which SoftBank must service expensive debt, fueling liquidity concerns and contributing to a more than 10% decline in its shares on November 6, 2026.
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