A Sierra Club analysis projects that the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers could increase US power-sector carbon dioxide emissions by 618 million metric tons by 2030, a 42% rise from 2025 levels. Total power-sector emissions could reach approximately 2.1 billion metric tons, equivalent to the electricity-related carbon output of more than 128 million American homes in a single year. More than 460 million tons would come from off-grid natural gas plants built by technology companies to bypass slow grid interconnection queues. Self-powered data center projects could generate up to 80% of their energy from natural gas, while delays in permitting renewable energy projects make it difficult to replace that capacity with cleaner sources.
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