Russian crude oil production reached 8.73 million barrels per day in October, up 210,000 barrels per day, alongside a rebound in shipments from the Gulf. Global oil supply stood at 105.4 million barrels per day, 2.3 million barrels higher than in September, while global stocks increased by 52 million barrels. According to the International Energy Agency, supply tentatively exceeded demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran. Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Middle East nevertheless kept the diesel market tight, despite the agreement reached on October 9 between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to supply diesel to global markets. For the fourth quarter, the IEA raised its global supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels per day and now forecasts a 6.6 million barrel-per-day increase in 2027.
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