Russia has struck two cargo ships in the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This attack targeting civilian shipping assets affects Ukraine’s Black Sea export routes. The Chornomorsk port is a key component of Ukraine’s maritime logistics, whose targeting could have broader implications for the country’s military and economic activities. Markets now reflect a 5.5% probability of Ukraine recapturing Crimea by the end of 2026.
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