Border security, once a major issue for many voters in South Texas, now appears to be a lower priority. This shift could weaken the Republican Party’s electoral prospects in several majority-Latino districts, particularly TX-35. In the November 4, 2026 election market, the probability of a Republican victory fell from 40% to 34.5% in one week, while Democratic nominee Johnny C. Garcia is now priced at a 66% chance of winning. The strategies of Donald Trump and the National Republican Congressional Committee, which support Carlos De La Cruz Jr., may therefore need to adapt to changing voter concerns.
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