US refiner stocks Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and HF Sinclair have surged more than 80% since the start of 2026, massively outperforming the S&P 500 which only gained 11%. WTI 3-2-1 crack margins have reached nearly $59 per barrel, tripling from January, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The S&P 500 Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing index has gained 104% this year, trading 41% above its 150-day moving average, a level only reached five times in the index’s history. In all five previous instances, the six-month forward returns were negative with an average decline of 10.1%, prompting analysts to recommend taking profits.
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