Qatar’s second-quarter 2026 budget deficit reached 21.2 billion riyals (approximately $5.8 billion), its largest quarterly shortfall since late 2016. This situation resulted from a more than 90% collapse in LNG exports, falling from approximately 20 million tons to under 2 million tons, due to the US-Iran conflict in February 2026 that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The cumulative first-half deficit totaled 31.5 billion riyals, already surpassing Qatar’s full-year budget projection of 21.8 billion riyals. Economists forecast an economic contraction of between 5% and more than 8% for full-year 2026. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Qatar has no alternative export routes, exposing its structural dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
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