Israeli forces have escalated military operations in Lebanon’s Nabatieh district, resulting in nearly 30 deaths, including children, and triggering a fresh wave of civilian displacement. Air and drone strikes have targeted residential areas and local infrastructure, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Prediction markets now price the probability of Israeli withdrawal from beyond the Litani River by December 31 at 21%, down from 24% the previous day. This decline suggests market participants view current military operations as reducing the likelihood of near-term withdrawal.
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