Prediction markets are moving into mainstream sports culture through partnerships with celebrities like Sydney Sweeney and leagues like the NHL. The basic premise is simple: turn your knowledge into trades, and your opinion gets a price. However, being right does not guarantee making money, as demonstrated by the example of buying ten contracts at 90 cents where eight wins still result in a net loss. Platforms benefit from more trading activity even when the best decision for a user may be to sit out, creating a gap between the promise of better forecasting and the economic incentive to generate transactions.
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