Prediction markets are becoming financial data, but a 63% price does not always mean 63% odds

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PredictionBubbles aggregates Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets into a unified dashboard displaying probabilities, volumes, and price movements as interactive bubbles. Kalshi saw an 800% increase in institutional trading volume over six months, illustrating the growing financial sector interest in these markets. Unreviewed research papers reveal that price calibration is strongest mid-contract and deteriorates in the final ten minutes, with five-minute Bitcoin contracts showing atypical Binance spot flows before settlement. The main challenge for prediction markets is no longer listing questions but organizing, distributing, and clarifying these prices for users.

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Telemac
Telemachttp://cryptoinfo.ch
Passionné de nouvelles technologies, j’explore l’univers de la blockchain et des cryptomonnaies pour partager l’actualité et les innovations du secteur.

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