Polymarket’s share of the prediction market fell from 96% to 27% in two years, while Kalshi now handles nearly three times its trading volume. In October 2026, Kalshi recorded about $65 billion in trading volume, compared with $10 billion for Polymarket US. Kalshi therefore held nearly 83% of the US-regulated market, with $2.05 billion in open interest, versus $384 million for Polymarket US. Regulatory clarity, distribution through Robinhood and Coinbase, and a broader product offering helped Kalshi expand, while Polymarket’s international volumes declined. Despite Polymarket US growing faster on a monthly basis, the absolute volume gap remains substantial ahead of the US midterm elections.
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