France’s National Gambling Authority ordered Polymarket to be blocked on July 16, but the platform filed an appeal with the French courts on August 21, and no ruling has been made public. As of October 23, 30 markets focused on French political, economic and social affairs had accumulated $161.2 million in cumulative wagers, including $155.6 million on the 2027 presidential election, while $4.3 million remained tied up in open positions. The October 17 violence led to the creation of six bets in four days, and the volume wagered on declaring a state of emergency rose from less than $24,000 to $276,539 in a few days. Marine Le Pen was priced at 46.4% to win the presidential election, compared with 18% for Edouard Philippe, 13.6% for David Lisnard and 11% for Jean-Luc Melenchon, while the probability of a downgrade to France’s credit rating before October 31 stood at 90.5%.
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