Poland activated its air defense following Russian strikes on Ukraine, triggering an air raid siren for residents in the eastern part of the country. This military response reflects Poland’s proximity to the conflict and its role as a NATO state bordering Ukraine. Heightened tensions near its borders have prompted Warsaw to adopt a defensive posture to safeguard its airspace. Prediction markets now price the likelihood of Ukraine recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026, at just 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago, reflecting growing concerns over Ukraine’s momentum in the region.
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