Volumes of refined products loaded in the Persian Gulf are rising, with most shipments exiting through the Strait of Hormuz. This increase is easing some of the tightness affecting one of the global oil market’s most constrained areas, nine months into the conflict with Iran. Flows nevertheless remain below pre-war levels, indicating a partial improvement rather than a full return to normal. The development lowers the prospect of a sharp rise in WTI futures, with markets currently assigning only a 1% probability that the crude oil benchmark will reach $160 per barrel in November 2026. Actions by OPEC and decisions by Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with any changes in global demand or regional exports, could alter these expectations.
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