OPEC+ may keep lifting its oil output quotas as the Iran war broadens. Why that won’t help lower prices.

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OPEC+ is expected to decide on September oil output quotas on Sunday. The alliance may lift its production quotas for the sixth consecutive month, but exporting those additional barrels will be the real challenge. The ability of Persian Gulf producers to translate higher quotas into actual exports depends on shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz, amid ongoing regional disruption. According to Salih Yilmaz, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, quota policy signals OPEC+’s medium-term strategy, but physical flows remain the dominant market driver as long as regional disruptions persist.

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