Bitcoin’s latest decline, triggered in the context of a security incident involving Binance, has revived debate about BTC’s ability to recover from major crises. According to data shared by Rand Group, Bitcoin posted substantial gains in the 12 months following several crypto disasters, including the Mt. Gox hack in 2011, the Mt. Gox collapse in 2015, the Covid-19 crash in 2020, the 2018 crypto winter and the FTX collapse in 2022. Following the March 2020 shock, it gained approximately 1,100% over the subsequent 12 months, while gains after the other events ranged from 125% to 500%. David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage, argues that such incidents have limited predictive value over the longer term, with the broader market cycle playing a more important role. Adam Livingston, vice president of investments at Strive, notes that the 6.9% decline recorded on October 29 and 30 represented a 5.3-standard-deviation move relative to the relatively low 1.3% 30-day volatility and ranked among the most extreme two-day declines since 2020.
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