An oil spill from the tanker Caroline Bezengi, identified as part of the shadow fleet and subject to EU and UK sanctions for transporting Russian oil, is spreading off the coast of Oman and threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage essential for global oil shipments. Markets anticipate a reduced likelihood of traffic normalization in the strait by September 30, 2026, with the probability of a positive outcome falling to 16.5%, down from 22% a week earlier. The incident highlights environmental risks associated with operating unregulated vessels in sensitive waters amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region.
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