The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing that one-year inflation expectations edged down slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% in June. Three-year and five-year forecasts remained firmly anchored at 3.3% and 3.0% respectively, suggesting households still believe the Fed can bring inflation back to target. The survey, conducted among 1,300 household heads, revealed mixed signals: gas price growth expectations surged 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%, while the perceived probability of higher unemployment rose 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%. These mixed indicators remain critical for the Federal Open Market Committee as it assesses the economic outlook.
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