Simultaneous conflicts in the Middle East, Red Sea, Black Sea and Caspian Sea are threatening major global oil supply routes. If both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb were blocked, crude prices could rise to $124 per barrel by August. The refined products crisis is particularly severe: at the start of the conflict, crude oil stockpiles stood at 4.4 billion barrels versus only 1.4 billion for fuels, and the U.S. gasoline crack spread has surged from $8 to $40-50 per barrel. The Trump administration has limited options: strategic reserves are largely depleted, U.S. producers and refiners are already operating near record levels, and the main emergency measures have already been implemented.
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