John Mearsheimer, a prominent political scientist, asserts that the Ukraine war cannot be resolved through diplomatic means. He argues that the irreconcilable goals of Russia and Ukraine make a military resolution inevitable rather than negotiation. U.S.-mediated negotiations have failed to bridge the gap between the two nations’ demands, further complicating prospects for a diplomatic solution. Russian forces maintain control over significant portions of Ukrainian territory, and peace talks have shown limited progress. Market pricing now assigns a 22% probability to a ceasefire by the end of 2026, down from 24%.
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