OpenAI said on August 7 it had slowed Astra’s rollout after internal tests showed cyber capabilities it cannot rule out as « Critical » under its own safety framework. Prediction market traders are betting on a near-term release, with 59% odds on Polymarket of a launch by September 15 and roughly 72% by month’s end. A model at OpenAI’s Critical threshold could, by the company’s own definition, find and build working zero-day exploits across many hardened systems without human help. Prediction markets have hit $2 billion in weekly volume this year, with OpenAI launch dates remaining a recurring favorite among traders.
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