Steven Barrow, G10 strategist at Standard Bank, has raised his year-end forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.2%, with further increases expected to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2027. The 10-year yield hit an intraday high of 5.01% on September 14, crossing this threshold for the first time since 2007. Brent crude prices hovering between $108 and $111 per barrel, August’s annualized CPI at 3.4%, and persistent fiscal deficits are fueling the upward pressure on yields. This trend risks weighing on mortgage rates and increasing borrowing costs for households and the US government alike.
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