Kurdish merchants in Iran have initiated a strike to commemorate the fourth anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death, an event widely perceived as government-ordered. This civil disobedience reflects ongoing dissent against the Iranian regime in regions historically active in civil resistance. The prediction market for the fall of the Iranian regime now shows a 7.5% probability of YES. This mobilization follows the suppression of broader protests that occurred between late 2025 and early 2026. However, it does not currently indicate a nationwide escalation.
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