Traders on the CFTC-regulated prediction platform Kalshi believe inflation has already hit its peak for 2026, but will remain elevated. The market implies a median headline CPI reading of roughly 3.6% year-over-year for December 2026, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Odds indicate over 90% probability that CPI stays above 3.4%, about 64% chance of reading above 3.5%, and 21% possibility of topping 4.0%. Core CPI, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, sits around 2.7%, suggesting that energy and food components are driving the gap between headline and core measures. This outlook presents a meaningful tail risk of reacceleration and a persistent gap from the Fed’s inflation goal.
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