Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, published what it calls the largest analysis ever conducted on prediction market accuracy, covering over 300,000 contracts with transaction-level data. The study confirms that contract prices are reliable estimators of real-world probabilities, with accuracy improving significantly as markets approach resolution. Contracts priced at 10 cents or less, representing events deemed highly unlikely, show average losses exceeding 60%, revealing a systematic bias of overpricing longshots. Kalshi Research, the company’s analysis division established on December 22, 2025, claims its inflation forecasts outperformed Wall Street consensus by 40%.
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