Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange, captured approximately 83% of notional trading volume on prediction markets during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In June 2026, the platform processed $31.5 billion in trading volume, up 87% from May, driven by sports markets tied to the tournament. Polymarket posted $13.3 billion over the same period. Together, the two platforms handled roughly $44.8 billion in June, compared to $24 billion in April. By early August, combined weekly volumes dropped below $10 billion for the first time since June, and global search interest returned to pre-tournament levels. Kalshi’s direct CFTC oversight gave it access to institutional and retail participants who avoid unregulated venues.
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