Brent crude broke through $100 per barrel this week, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions. JPMorgan strategists warn that the decline, when it comes, could be swift enough to catch most traders off guard. The bank projects an average crude price of $97 for 2026, implying current levels are borrowed time rather than a new normal. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15-16 meeting, with energy costs driving hotter-than-anticipated inflation data. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any sustained disruption there would rewrite every forecast on the table.
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