JPMorgan Asset Management published its first long-term Bitcoin forecast in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 19. The bank projects a 10% annual compounded return for Bitcoin over a 10- to 15-year horizon, the highest among compared assets, surpassing U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), U.S. REITs (8.2%), and gold (5.5%). This forecast comes with a 55% annualized volatility, roughly three times the approximately 18% for U.S. large-cap equities and 17.2% for gold. JPMorgan has not included Bitcoin in its main covariance matrices for long-term portfolio construction due to its high volatility and unstable correlations with conventional assets.
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