The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is concentrating essential power in Iran, sidelining elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the clerical council maintain their support for retaining sanctions, further limiting the president’s authority over foreign and security policy. Prediction markets reflect a 14.5% probability of Pezeshkian leaving office before December 31, indicating perceived instability in his administration. This concentration of power within a security-led hierarchy raises questions about the viability of the Pezeshkian presidency.
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