Six months into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, the global energy economy looks fundamentally different. Brent crude has stabilized between $86 and $93 per barrel, roughly 25% above pre-war levels, and fossil fuel importers worldwide have collectively absorbed more than $330 billion in extra costs since February 28. Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum passes in peacetime, has sharply curtailed exports from the entire Gulf region. China stands out as the clearest beneficiary, having posted five consecutive record months of clean technology exports as nations accelerate their pivot away from fossil fuels.
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