The Wall Street Journal reports that Tehran’s ability to leverage the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical tool has diminished, which could increase the risk of military conflict. Oil flow through this vital strait and alternative routes has returned to 80 percent of pre-conflict levels. This development reduces the impact of Iranian maritime disruptions and affects Tehran’s political leverage. Markets now reflect an increased perceived risk of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s potential departure, with the odds of him leaving office by December 31 having slightly increased.
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