Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has fired again toward the Strait of Hormuz as part of an escalating pattern of attacks on commercial vessels throughout 2026. On April 18, IRGC gunboats fired on at least three commercial ships, followed by warning shots at four vessels on May 28, and in July, two separate incidents on the 21st and 30th resulted in oil tankers catching fire or being forced to reverse course. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding on safe passage between Iran and the United States collapsed without ever taking effect. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20 to 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade, making it a critical chokepoint, and Iran has explicitly stated the strait will not fully reopen without changes in US behavior.
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