Reports indicate that Iranian hardliners have revived discussions about the potential removal of President Masoud Pezeshkian. Despite these conversations, there appears to be little evidence of a coordinated effort within Iran’s political landscape to unseat him. Prediction markets currently price the likelihood of his departure by December 31 at 10.5%, suggesting modest increase in odds reflecting heightened tensions but not an immediate threat. The absence of concrete parliamentary support makes an imminent removal unlikely, even as hardline rhetoric intensifies. This environment may be consistent with continued pressure on Pezeshkian’s administration rather than an immediate change in leadership.
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