President Trump is reportedly considering three strategies regarding Iran: negotiating a nuclear deal, intensifying an economic blockade, or escalating to military strikes. These options were discussed during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, amid concerns over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Market pricing suggests only a 4.5% likelihood that the U.S. will end the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026, down from 12% previously. The probability of a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026, including reconstruction funding, is priced at 29%. Finally, the likelihood of a permanent peace agreement between Israel and Iran stands at just 0.5%.
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