Iran rejected two US demands during talks held in Islamabad, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced on Monday. Washington had warned that negotiations would fail if Tehran refused to accept these requirements, particularly concerning nuclear restrictions and regional security issues. Prediction markets reflect this diplomatic setback: the probability of a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026, has dropped to 10.5%, down from 22% twenty-four hours earlier. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the same date have also declined to 5.5%.
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