Jafar Pourkabgani, an Iranian lawmaker, has been accused of personally firing at protesters during January demonstrations, according to witnesses cited by Iran International. These protests were part of nationwide anti-government demonstrations that were violently suppressed by Iranian state forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The lawmaker’s direct involvement represents a significant escalation in state violence. The prediction market for Iranian regime change by the end of 2026 currently shows a 6.5% probability for a YES outcome, up from 6% twenty-four hours ago.
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