Iran has accused Ukraine of launching an attack on one of its commercial vessels in the Caspian Sea, killing one sailor and injuring another. This escalation extends hostilities linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict into Iranian maritime territories. Tehran summoned Ukraine’s diplomat to protest what it calls an aggressive act, while Kyiv maintains the strikes targeted vessels involved in military logistics between Iran and Russia. With markets pricing only a 16.5% probability of Strait of Hormuz normalization by August 31, the incident is likely to delay any resolution of the strategic waterway’s blockade.
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