India’s Russian crude imports fell to approximately 2.1 million barrels per day in August, down from nearly 2.8 million in June and July, representing a 17 to 26% decline depending on calculation method. Despite this drop, Russia remains India’s top oil supplier, accounting for 40 to 45% of total crude imports. The pullback stems from three converging factors: scheduled maintenance at Indian refineries, Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea export infrastructure, and increased competition from Chinese buyers for discounted Russian crude. Preliminary September shipping data points to a further decline to around 1.9 million barrels per day, a 32% drop from summer highs, before flows stabilize in the 2.0 to 2.5 million barrel per day range. Indian refiners are reportedly preparing for potential 100% US tariffs on Russian oil by ramping up spot-market purchases as a hedge.
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