Bitcoin trades near $63,000 as markets price roughly 66% odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Official inflation gauges span from 2.2% (Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE) to 3.7% (headline PCE), leaving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh considerable discretion over how to interpret the data. In a bearish scenario, a 3.7% headline reading would support tighter policy and could push Bitcoin toward $60,000 then $58,000. In a bullish scenario, greater weight on the 2.2% metric would give the Fed room to hold rates, lifting Bitcoin above $65,300 and toward $68,000.
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