According to Galaxy Research, Bitcoin breaking above the 50-week moving average, currently near $82,470, would be the most reliable signal that the bear market has ended. The firm’s study covers six complete bearish cycles since 2011: out of 13 weekly MA crossovers, 11 held without new lows, an 85% success rate. Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,395, approximately 6% below this key level. The more volatile 50-day moving average proved far less reliable with 43 failed breakouts out of 106 bullish crossovers. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, confirmed on August 21 that the bearish phase is nearly over, while noting that the recent rally was amplified by approximately $3 billion in short liquidations.
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