On August 26, 2026, Bill Gates published an essay on his GatesNotes blog that marks a turning point in his stance on artificial intelligence. The Microsoft co-founder describes AI as a potential source of either the greatest equalizer ever invented or the worst source of injustice, while his findings on the precariousness of the American labor market unintentionally echo criticisms long raised by Bitcoin advocates since 2009.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Bill Gates calls for an international AI oversight body modeled after the IAEA or ICAO.
- The « True Rate of Unemployment » reached 24.9% in the US in July 2026, versus 4.1% for the official jobless rate.
- The Gates Foundation will deploy $200 billion by 2045, with a growing share earmarked for AI-related projects.
- Sam Altman (OpenAI) admits it may be necessary to « slow down » the pace of AI development.
- Hostile to Bitcoin since 2018, Gates nonetheless cites arguments that closely mirror those of crypto advocates.
Bill Gates’ alarming essay on AI
In his piece titled « The turbulent AI era is here and the choices we make now are critical, » Gates warns that AI could become the most disruptive force since the Industrial Revolution. The billionaire fears the disappearance of entry-level jobs — customer service, software development, technical support — the very roles through which a generation learns the basics of a trade. He also points to the falling technical barriers for cyberattacks and for certain risky biotechnological research.
« AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented or the worst source of injustice. Even under the best of circumstances, the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most tumultuous periods in human history. »
Bill Gates, Microsoft co-founder
To contain these risks, Gates outlines several measures: the creation of human-only zones in healthcare and education, a tax on robots and AI-generated content, and the issuance of AI tokens to fund professional retraining. Above all, he advocates for an international oversight body modeled after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and he wants to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this year to lay the groundwork for US-China cooperation on dangerous AI applications.
Proposals that echo long-standing critiques of financial capitalism
Several of the measures Gates champions — taxing productivity gains, publicly funding retraining, global governance of disruptive technologies — overlap with demands historically championed by Bitcoin and decentralized finance advocates. The parallel is all the more striking given that the billionaire still called Bitcoin a « pure greater fool theory » on CNBC in 2018, a stance he has not revisited since.
« I don’t like telling people bad news or saying that innovation can have globally negative consequences, but here we are. »
Bill Gates, interview with the New York Times
Hidden unemployment: a contested thermometer
The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP) publishes a monthly True Rate of Unemployment (TRU), an alternative metric that aggregates official jobless workers, involuntary part-time workers, and anyone earning less than the $26,000 annual poverty threshold. In July 2026, the TRU stood at 24.9%, up for the fourth consecutive month, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official rate showed 4.1%. Among women, the TRU climbed to 31%, its highest level since March 2021.
| Period | Official rate (BLS) | TRU (Ludwig Institute) |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | n/a | 25.2% |
| June 2026 | 4.2% | 24.7% |
| July 2026 | 4.1% | 24.9% |
LISEP’s methodology remains contested. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CBS News that « an unemployment rate in the 20% range does not correspond to anything we observe in the American economy. » Oren Etzioni, founder of the Allen Institute for AI, shares Gates’s diagnosis but disputes his remedies: taxing AI tokens amounts, in his view, to « taxing keystrokes on a typewriter. » He also warns that slowing American AI would hand an open road to Chinese competitors. Neither Daco nor Etzioni claims the US labor market is healthy — they challenge the thermometer, not the fever.
AI and Bitcoin: a similar energy bill
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity consumption by data centers reached roughly 415 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024. It is set to double by 2030, reaching around 945 TWh, driven by AI-dedicated servers growing at 30% per year. That energy trajectory mechanically brings the AI debate closer to the one surrounding Bitcoin mining: two electricity-hungry industries whose carbon footprint is now under close scrutiny from regulators and grid operators.
The crypto market listens for the next NFP
The next US Non-Farm Payrolls report is expected in early September 2026, and the crypto market is watching closely. Each recent release has moved Bitcoin by several percentage points within minutes — a sign of growing sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators. The gap between official figures (4.1%) and alternative measures (24.9%) could reinforce the crypto narrative that the traditional monetary system underestimates real economic fragility.
Conclusion: an unintended narrative
Bill Gates’s pivot illustrates a revealing paradox: one of Bitcoin’s most virulent critics inadvertently validates the very theses the crypto community has championed since 2009 — wage precariousness, erosion of purchasing power, the blindness of traditional macroeconomic indicators. The question now is whether markets will integrate this new narrative in the coming weeks, as the September NFP approaches and several tech leaders — Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Mark Zuckerberg, Demis Hassabis — have also publicly raised concerns about AI’s social consequences.
Sources
This article is published for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research (DYOR) before making any decisions.
