The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday, but investors expect another increase before the end of the year. The key indicator to watch is not the rate itself but the evolution of financial conditions, which are beginning to tighten while remaining fairly loose. The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index stands at -0.50, a historically low reading. A rise toward zero would signal further tightening, while a more negative reading would indicate easing financial conditions.
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