Gulf Cooperation Council states are reassessing their ties with the United States amid tensions with Iran. This reassessment is driven by concerns over US policy shifts, security arrangements, and the stalled diplomatic negotiations with Tehran. Market pricing now implies only an 11.5% probability of a US-Iran peace deal by the August 31 deadline, down from 34% a week ago. A ceasefire is in place but threats to Gulf energy infrastructure persist. This situation could have significant implications for US military installations in the region and regional security dynamics.
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