Kalshi’s contract on a federal government shutdown on October 1, 2026 priced at 15-16 cents, implying odds near 10%, sharply down from 35% three weeks earlier. On Polymarket, the strict shutdown version traded at 16.5 cents on August 14, versus 13.5 cents for the broader any-duration lapse contract. Traders are clearly separating the specific October 1 shutdown risk from the broader funding cycle crisis risk, with positions on a lapse before January 31, 2027 valued at 87.3 cents on Polymarket.
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