Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have published analyses revealing that AI-related debt has reached record levels. Goldman Sachs estimates $489 billion in AI-related debt issuance in the first half of 2026, while Morgan Stanley projects nearly $570 billion for the full year. Hyperscaler capex needs are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2027, and their gross leverage has doubled from 0.9x to 1.8x in just six months. Investors are becoming more selective, favoring investment-grade offerings over lower-rated borrowers, creating a two-speed market. Hyperscaler off-balance-sheet commitments estimated at approximately $3 trillion add another layer of uncertainty.
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